大宗原料采购中的套期保值

参加一个关于采购成本管理的培训,讲师讲到一个关于套期保值的概念,虽然当年学财务期货管理的时候也经常会看到这个词,一直以来都认为套期保值是一种投机手段,今天算是对此概念进行了更新。

一、套期保值的财务概念

套期保值是把期货市场当成转移价格风险的场所,利用远期期货合约价格与将来在现货市场购买商品价格进行差异对冲,形成一种保险性的交易活动。概念不完全是书上的,大概就是这么个意思,但还是很难懂。

二、几点个人经验

(一)期货可在买多,也可以买空,这是游戏规则,不需要多说明。

(二)期货合约当前价格与现货价格变动保持一致性,这一点很多人不理解,这也是期货可以套期保值操作的一个根本条件。我的理解是,期货是围绕现货价格进行波动的,而且期货的价格变动是领先于现货的变动的,至于期货价格与现货价格是如何相互影响的,这个问题过于复杂,以后会讨论,目前就理论认为保持价值一致性。

(三)无论是买入现货时同时买入期货,或是买入现货时卖出期货,均不一定能达到“保值”的功能,而实际是一种锁定价格的方式,买入现货时买入期货,实际是将价格锁定于当前(已知价格),买入现货时卖出期货,实际是将价格锁定到交割期(未知价格)。在这里我的设定是现货是一定买入,原因是生产类企业需要连续生产,必须购进现货原材料。

(四)期货套期保持实际是平衡价格的波动对生产造成的影响,保证价格稳定,保证生产成本稳定,脱离了实物购买,期货的买卖实际就是一种投机

(五)在一个周期内,暂设是一个自然年度内,期货和现货价格会有一定的波动,由于生产需要,现货的购买因库存原因,保质期的原因,即便是在价格最低点,一次性购买全年所需也是不现实的,如大豆这种放一个月就会坏掉的东西,但需要将价格锁定在最低点,这时候就可以利用期货市场做套期保值了。所以确定最低价格仍然是重中之重。如年初价格最高,6月价格最低,我们在年初购买原材料的时候卖出期货(暂定交割期在6月),就将价格锁定到了6月,我们再在6月时买入期货平仓,买入原材料,那么前期就均使用了6月的价格。在6月买入现货时,再买入期货,如果价格升高,则后续卖出期货买入现货,价格依然锁定在6月这个最低价。

(六)现实中,期货的最低点是无法确认的,是赔是赚根本无法预测,如可以预测,干脆不要买入现货了,直接做期货就行了,而对于生产需要,必须买入现货,又不能大量存储现货及保质期的问题,就可以通过判断价格走势将价格锁定到现在或者交割期。

三、高级玩法

如果只做一次交易,结果还真不一定是怎么一回事,但如果概率论所指,道器终将归一,因期货是围绕现货价格进行波动的,那么在长期多次的交易过程中,盈亏是平衡的,最终还是可以做到“套期保值”的效果,原计划是6月价格最低,但后续又发生的跌价,重新调整锁定价格,买入期货可以挽回一部分的损失,因为没有只跌不涨的市场,类似于股票中的补仓降低成本。这种经验只有实际浸淫期货市场多年的操盘手才会有,交易的次数与时间及远期合约的合约期均是一个变动因素。

四、套期保值模型中的几点因素

(一)基差

虽然现货价格与期货价格基本是一致的,但仍会产生差异,这个差异就是基差。

(二)量差

实际买入现货与买入期货的数量一定存在差异,买入期货是有固定的交易要求的,不一定与实际需要的现货完全一致;

(三)时差

现货与期货买入/卖出的时间不一定完全一致,这个差异也可能产生盈利或亏损

(四)杠杆效应

期货的购买是有杠杆的,如控制不好被平仓,则会产生完全的亏损,风险巨大。用当年教我金融的老师的话来说就是:千万不要碰期货,分分钟破产。

(五)套期保值的实际需求者

不是为了投机,在预算完全年利润中,已确定购买大宗原材料价成本,需要进行锁定的才有必要去做套期保值。

原创文章,转载请注明: 转载自飞月秀

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