十年一梦 一个操盘手的自白

企图一夜暴富往往是自寻烦恼,甚至是自掘坟墓。这种事情与其说是由于心切而被蒙蔽了双眼的贪婪,还不如说是由于不愿意动脑筋而被绑住的希望。(ps:不该贪心的时候不要贪心,十年磨一剑,等待属于自己的机会)

如果你不以一种谨慎、保守的态度思考、评估投机成功的可能性,确认自己在心理上、财务上做好可能失败的精神准备,仓促、一厢情愿地参与市场交易,将使你的命运充满可以预见的悲剧。

良好的心理素质、超然的人生境界、创造性的交易策略、理念,使他们的成功带有极大的必然性。

人生有很多事情无法再来一次。

年轻时候觉得不重要的小节问题,年龄大了以后可能觉得很重要,有些年轻时候认为很重要的事情,现在看来往往没有什么意义。

你不可能随心所欲,又能在市场中有良好的表现。

股民应该把现阶段中国证券市场放在中国政治、经济的特殊环境中来人事,无论是早期上海、深圳股市,还是现在,都一样。不但现在,包括今后相当长一段时间,中国证券市场还将在政治的主导下运行,而不是完全在市场规律下前进。

做股票的三个原则:
1、抓住大行情可能来临的机会,重仓交易,操作时干净利落,决不拖泥带水。不贪小利,迷恋股市。
2、依靠市场对政策的反应强度来决定,是否应该大胆出击。股票的内在价值或者市场价格的高低,并不重要。投机者要用政治的眼光来审视股票市场,抓住市场可能出现的重大变化。
3、决不染指垃圾股。

对股市风险的观念有全新的认识。对市场指数的高低只要有一点基本的常识观念,就不会犯大错。一般投机者不应该在市场已经涨了一大截后再匆忙杀入股市。

股市的投机成数,主要不是靠知识,而是靠信念;主要不是靠智慧,而是靠胆量。

在与股市博斗的同时,更与自我人性中的恐惧、贪婪、焦躁、冲动等等根深蒂固的本能做生死的较量。

偶尔几次交易盈利,会使大多数投机者产生一种幻觉,认为迟早有一天,这些赔掉的钱会重新回来,只要坚持下去,还有暴富的机会,一进入交易大厅,这点可怜的、粗糙的理性思维成果马上被抛到九霄云外。

害怕市场上涨,却没有做多;害怕市场下跌,缺没有做空。不愿意失去一切交易机会,简直是傻透了。(ps:市场机会很多,我们要抓自己看的懂的机会)

成功的交易容易助长一个危险的观念:交易的亏损并没有什么可怕的,总是有办法赚回来。

一个投资新手最想知道的是今天下午或者明天上午,股票的价格走势如何,市场会怎么样。时间长一点的事情他就完全不会再去思考,也不感兴趣。这是一个市场新手最真实的投资心理。

现代心理学的研究表明,人的记忆是有偏差的、有选择性的。夸大测试方法中成功的次数,而有意无意地缩小预测错误的次数。

一个傻瓜、一个骗子和一个真正的市场高手之间,在判断市场短期走势方面,谁也没有绝对的优势。

越来越讨厌自己在市场交易中盲目地买进卖出,就像赌博,一点胜算也没有。我有一种强烈的欲望,想要学到一种能够预测市场变化的技术。

世上没有一个人、一种工具能准确地预测市场的短期价格变化,这是一个市场新手提出的低级问题。

自己身上的问题只有自己才能解决。

在投机市场上,一个人偶尔赚一笔钱并不难,难的是一辈子稳稳当当地赚钱。

投机事业的成败未必和一个人付出的努力成正比。过多的苛求自己、责备自己,甚至自我惩罚、自我折磨,对自己是不公平的。要在股票市场上赚到钱,一个人的内在因素固然重要,某些外在的条件,如市场环境、偶然性事件等也是投机成功必不可少的。偶然性事件有时候可以影响一个人的一生。

任何投机者都会有不清醒、犯傻的时候,庄家也一样。

有时候,一个投机者对某一笔交易是赚是赔可能并不太在意,判断对了行情,而且及时采取了果断的行动,这样的交易经历,往往使投机者更加兴奋、愉快。

拯救灵魂的唯一方法是禁欲、牺牲以及对简单和朴素毫不动摇地坚持。

投机者的市场认识、交易理念、心理素质、策略技巧、修养境界等因素,比市场预测能力,对一个人的最后成败更为重要。

任何人只要顺应市场趋势交易就可以轻松赚大钱。但是,一旦你在市场上建立了头寸,你对市场走势的判断就不象原来做为旁观者时那么客观、超然、自信,你的心理、情绪会发生巨大的变化,怀疑、焦虑、恐惧、患得患失等因素很可能扭曲你的思维,使你在实际操作时陷入混乱。结果,看起来一次很单纯的顺势交易,在人的心理因素的干扰下,会把它搞得乱七八糟。

依靠图表显示的市场趋势操作,我的思维不再每天在多空之间摇摆不定,陷入混乱的状态。

期货交易,如果投机者入市后三天还没有出现利润,立即平仓出场。


成功的原因:
1、精神和心理状态好,对交易抱着非常谨慎的态度,没有急躁、贪婪的欲望,也不奢望一夜暴富。能理智、平静地看待市场交易,不慌不忙地选择入市时机,淡泊的心态可以使思维单纯、清晰,容易和市场运动的节奏合拍。
2、中长线交易策略
3、严格的风险控制
4、加码策略
运用试探-加码的交易策略。即在第一次投资后,如果市场走势证明我的判断是错误的,就止损出局。如果随后的市场走势表明我的判断是正确,就会在第一笔交易有了浮动盈利后,再一次加码,这样,在失误时,只会损失一点小钱。而一旦判断正确,通过加码策略,就会赚到大钱。

我的交易已经有了巨大的浮动亏损,面对极为不利的局面,我完全被侥幸心理所支配,一心希望多头主力会重新进场,能使市场价格止跌回稳。彻底丧失了客观的市场分析和判断能力。

人的侥幸心理的力量真是太强大了,即使是这么恶劣的形势下,还是抱着对多头的幻想,不愿砍仓出场。

在期货交易中,一个人的心理、精神状态远比他拥有的市场知识和预测技术重要得多。

交易理念、投机策略不成熟、稳定,禁不住市场的诱惑和自我贪婪的欲望,交易策略还没有成为投机思想的核心、灵魂,也远远没有彻底落实到自己的观察、思考、行动的每一方面,成为自己的交易习惯。以前交易的损失和痛苦的经历,使内心世界发生重大的变化。在精神、心理、情绪等方面进入了一种扭曲、混乱的状态,已经丧失了一个投机者正常的心态,耐心、忍耐性大幅度减弱。恐惧、害怕、焦虑等情绪因素开始干扰正常的思维,动摇交易信念。投机者一定要培养一个稳定、良好的心态,即使花上十年功夫,也不算多。

交易的有些错误,许多投机者明白知道,却会一再重复犯错。

来得容易去的也快。

市场并不理会我们的祈祷和希望,继续按照自己的节奏运动。

期货交易成功的关键并不是你与市场作战,打败市场,而是一个人和自己较劲,需要战胜自己内心的贪婪、恐惧、侥幸等人性的弱点。当你憋足一股劲,怀着必胜的信念入市交易时,从一定意义上说,凭借意志的力量,你已经战胜了自我,成为自己的真正主人。

从长远看,看似保守、胆小的行为其实非常聪明,高瞻远瞩,志在长远。胆大妄为的重仓交易是一种短视、愚蠢的举动,早晚会成为市场的牺牲品。

你不能凭想象行事,这样就是不尊重市场,就会受到惩罚。

只有量的积累,才有质的飞跃。重仓交易者企图战胜事件的束缚,一夜暴富。金融投机的秘诀在于很好地利用复利机制,长期、稳定的盈利。

相对于近期盈利,我更关心资本的安全。主要还是着眼于限制亏损,而不是套取暴利。

一般人之所以出现巨大损失,往往是在关键时刻犹豫不决,心存侥幸,不能壮士断臂,结果,越拖亏损越大。也就是说,造成投机者损失的主要原因,不是市场没有给你逃命的机会,而是投机者自身没有采取强烈的风险控制措施。

能否抵御市场短期短期波动的威胁、欺骗,是顺势交易最令人头痛而又不得不面对的现实问题。一个神经过敏、心理脆弱的投机者是不能从长线交易中获取惊人利润的。

类似的K线出现在市场的不同位置,低价区、中价区、高价区,后市价格变化的结果可能大不一样。投机者如何知道哪儿是高价区,哪儿是低价区?这只能凭借每个人自己的经验大概估计,主观性很强。

应该以整体、全局、发展的眼光来看待市场运动,而不能根据局部K线发出的信号,轻率、随便地判断市场的底部或者顶部已经出来了。一段事件市场价格波动的形态,远比一两条K线的预测结果重要。

在期货交易中,可做可不做的交易,还是不要碰为妙。投机者如果把精力集中在很有把握、非做不可的交易上,交易的业绩可能会大幅提升。

期货交易有时候确实令人奇怪,无论市场价格涨到或者跌到什么不合理的地步,在事后看来这个位置是多么的荒唐,但是,身处其中的投机者却很难完全摆脱当时的市场环境、气氛的巨大影响。面对一种历史性的低位和高位,每天沉溺在市场博杀的投机者很难觉察到这有什么特别之处。

虽然我对顺势交易、中长线交易的理念已经有了一定的认识,但是,我并没有形成以中长线顺势交易为核心的基本策略。还是不能战胜自我本然的欲望,每每屈服于自己的个性、习惯,想要抓住市场每一次波动的利润。

在振荡市中,低买高卖,刚好和振荡行情的走势特点相适应。但是,市场价格不会老在一个地方振荡,一旦某一天市场运动的性质发生变化,趋势行情来临,短线交易方式很可能就会演变为逆市操作。如果止损及时,损失还不会太大,如果止损不及时,短线操作套牢以后,变成逆势操作的长线交易,一次方向作反,损失惊人。短线交易方式隐含了天然缺陷。

市场趋势的力量确实非常强大。过于关注细节的人,往往大事情一无所知。

我跟本没有意识到,目前的下跌行情只是空头市场开始的序幕。我的思维还停留在前一年的价格水平上,从心理上还没有适应这种空头市场的局面。现实的情况已经发生了重大的变化,我还是以老的观念来看问题,显然,我的脚步太慢了,没有跟上市场的运动节奏。一直抱着这种错误的想法,一次又一次地做多,结果,一次又一次地被迫止损,损失很大。

顺势交易并不总像事后看起来那样轻松、简单。在实际操作中,顺势交易者一旦遇到大的市场振荡,完全可能赔钱。所以,其实顺势交易也是有风险的。投资者很容易被市场短期波动搞糊涂,沉溺其中而失去超然的思维、心态,忘记市场大趋势的方向。

任何一个市场趋势一旦已经明朗,市场价格往往已经涨跌了相当幅度。在这种情况下,市场趋势随时反转的可能性也并非不存在。投机者继续进行顺势交易,会有巨大的心理障碍。一般人,尤其是一个市场新手,为什么很难不折不扣低遵循顺势交易的原则,这是一个重要原因。

空头市场中,价格越来越低,买便宜货的心理会使投机者产生一种抄底的情结。尽管每次做多都有损失,随着市场价格越来越低,投机者买入的欲望可能越来越强烈。无意中,大多数人都变成逆势交易者。结果,在强势的市场趋势面前,我被迅速套牢,偷鸡不成蚀把米。

如果你独自一个人在犯错误,你的心理压力就会很大,而当周围别的人也和你的行为方式一样,你就会有一种安全感。即使你每天都在交易中亏钱,你的心理也会好受多了。

在市场价格判断上,价格变化本身透露出的信息远比持仓量、成交量的意义重要。对投机者来说,不要去参考市场中别人的行为,丛众是通向地狱最廉价的门票。

那一段时间,我却没有能力从整体、全局的高度把握期货市场的价格趋势,也没有能力制定相应的交易策略,更谈不上具有一个专业投机者的心理素质和境界修养。

没有理论指导的实践是盲目的实践。

当一个人的内心充满矛盾、冲突时,最典型的行为特征是不采取任何行动。接下来的几个交易日,市场价格在一个狭窄的空间波动,依然存在对多头心存幻想,没有在损失还不大的情况下果断撤退。终于,令人难以置信的市场暴跌开始了。

投资者不可能每一次都正确地判断市场运动的方向,这是投机的一个普遍规律。既然错误判断、错误决策的情况难以避免,如何在判断失误时减少亏损,是每一个投机者在交易活动中必须面临的最基本问题。即使止损被证明是投机者控制风险的有效手段。

市场价格越跌,越以为底部就在眼前,不应该平仓,结果损失越来越大。投机者不应该主观地去猜测市场的顶和底,应该让市场自己来告诉我们。

没有有效止损的投机交易极为危险,亏得倾家荡产是早晚的事。顺势交易有可能把投机者带到成功的彼岸。

股票这类投机交易因为需要很强的理性态度,非常忌讳情绪化的行为方式。

让一个新手轻率地进行期货交易是不负责任的,后果非常严重。

即使顺着市场重大趋势方向交易,如果不能严格地控制风险,也可能遭到毁灭性的打击。

也许期货交易最困难的地方之一,就是投机者必须时时刻刻保持一种理智、平静的心态。不管赔钱、赚钱,都能客观、谦逊地评价自己,对待市场。成功的时候,多想想运气的成份,失败的时候,多找找主观的因素。

股票、期货这种投机生意很奇怪,有时候无论你怎么努力,也休想从市场上弄到壹分钱,有时候,钱来得又快又轻松。仿佛天上掉下来的馅饼。

一个人一旦上了股票、期货投机这条船,思想、情感和行为就会令常人难以理解,他会沉溺在市场交易,变得无比的固执、自信而不能自拔,像赌场中输红了眼的赌徒,完全失去理智,别人跟本无法左右他,尤其是在第一笔交易有了利润后,人性中的投机欲望,更是像绝堤之洪,势不可挡,难以抑制。

一个投机者在股票、期货市场中,思维、认知、态度、心理、精神等主体内心世界复杂的演变、发展过程。

市场认识,就是对股票、期货市场的重大原则问题的基本观点。包括市场趋势变化的必然性和偶然性、操纵行为对市场价格的影响、意外事件的发生与市场重大趋势的关系等等;交易策略就是应贵市场价格变化的基本方法、技巧、对策。包括入市点的选择、投入资金的安排、出现有利或不利局面时如何处理、长线交易和短线交易的优劣比较等等;投机者精神包括投机者对待金钱的态度,如何看待交易时的亏损和盈利。在长线交易中,投机者如何从心理上做好市场短期大幅回调的准备,坚定持仓信念。在市场趋势没有明显的反转信号出来以前,投机者如何处理手中盈利的交易,为什么投机者常常喜欢盲目而频繁交易,为什么投机者对内幕消息乐此不疲等。


缠中说禅:“看技术买点,一定要综合地看,如果30分很强的,甚至是1分钟的买点也该回补了;但如果30分很弱,那至少要等30分的买点出现。”

原创文章,转载请注明: 转载自飞月秀

本文链接地址: 十年一梦 一个操盘手的自白

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