我要开始洒狗血了,小心溅一身

这篇文章于2015年5月发布于我的QQ空间,因关闭空间转载此处,写的是一些关于股票的事情。

虽然很早之前就接触股票的,但是正式走技术炒股路线的时间是从2014年8月开始的,原因是:闲得蛋疼。正好那时候是A股牛市启动初期,感谢“金融蝉”当年给的提示,不算是抓住牛市,也算是全程跟踪了一遍,提供了宝贵的经验与实践的机会。
股票的分时走势图犹如心电图,分分钟兴高采烈,分分钟又沮丧万分,但每日复盘总结时却发现,最大利益并非是在当日,大阴线也未必挣不到钱,回想当时的高兴与沮丧是万分不值的,有一种势叫大势,顺势者赚,逆市者也有可能赚,但大部分都是赔的。
慢慢摸清了一些规律,其实股市与彩票真的很像,每个人都有自已的一套思路,而且谁也说不服,对于大牛市来说,今天不赚明天赚,今天少赔明天赚,所以人人都成了专家,只要还是牛市,迟早是要赚回来的,赔了很多天,然后突然有一天涨起来了,于是更加相信自己的那套理论。

那么,我们炒股到底是在看些什么呢?

一、有人说是基本面

基本面就是所谓的宏观经济,环看中国目前经济情况,虽然没有具体数据,但是依然可以看出来,房地产行业停滞不前,钢铁行业寒冬都喊了好几年了,各大重工,造船什么的,从08年金融危机开始到现在都没有喘过气来,电子行业从广东开始,倒闭一家又一家,实体经济烂得一踏糊涂。做为证券市场支撑的基本面这德性,毫无支撑之感;

二、有人说是政策面

很有道理,中国的股市就是一个政策市,说白了说是官媒说,那些常委都说了些什么,央行怎么看,证监会怎么看,有一个很有意思的图片,是一家证券公司为了吸引人开户时做的广告:当新闻中出现下列字眼时。

简单来说,就是炒概念,资源概念,高铁概念,一带一路概念,央企改革概念等等。不可否认,政策概念股是一个神奇的东西,南车北车,兼一带一路,央企改革、高铁基建,高端装备,合并重组等等众多概念,一路狂飙,一度被称为中国神车;中铁,铁建也是应声而动,中国电建做为中巴概念股,差点成为中国第一建,概念一旦强到了国家层面,大多数指标都是失效的,考验的只有股民的心理因素。一旦心里恐高达到顶峰,该概念基本也算是结束,坐等下一个概念出来。

联系基本面和政策面来看,另有一番简单的道理深在其中,经济面(基本面)与政策面是在跳一曲交谊舞,而证券市场是他们的舞池,经济退步,国家为了剌激经济,必然会出了些应对措施,这就是政策,政策其实也没干别的,就是在撒钱,但是不能够直接作用于经济,所以需要一个蓄水池,这就是周小川同志的池子理论,而目前这个池子就是证券市场。政策向股市注水,股市向实体经济分流,牛市开始,政策停止注水,股市还在分流,牛市结束。看似简单的道理,里面包含了众多指标与技术分析,包括GDP,CPI,M1,M2,R1,R2等等,推算非常复杂,我们就把这些工作留给证券分析师来做吧,毕竟牛市还是需要众多散户的支持的。

三、有人说是消息面

广义消息面本质上是包括政策面的,只不过政策面是上层消息,而狭义的消息面更适用于个股,什么配股分红、什么定向增发债券或股票,合并收购,年、半年、季度财务报表等,公积转资本重大事项等。一般情况下,公司敢发出来的消息基本不是什么坏消息,坏消息一般都是某些专业人士爆出来了,而一般情况下,某些人可以在消息放出之前提前知道消息,信息不对称这点对于散户来说是极其不利的。在我看来,消息只是个股动作的导火索,利好消息的到来只是有可能引起爆发式大涨,到底能不能爆发,还得看资金面。

四、有人说是资金面

我认为这个才是最有技术含量,最值得去研究的一个方面,股票到底涨不涨,说白了看是怎么样进行交易的,交易是股票涨跌的直接动力。大的资金面我们要看开户人数,期末或某时间的有效账户数,集中交易的金额,结算总金额和净额等宏观数据。微观上要看资金埋伏程度,量价的背离,MACD曲线,成交量,换手率等各种指标,然后长期追踪,查看庄家的操作手法,行情启动前进入,行情结束前退出,说起来简单,做起来极难,需要大量的数据分析和经验。

尽管有如此多的规律,股票市场依然是变化无常的,有时候在周末的时候、晚间就开始了精神上的博弈,用意念来完成了一次大幅震荡,更别说盘中的震荡,几千、几万甚至几十万可能在就在一瞬间灰飞烟灭,当然得看你的本钱有多大了,鉴于这种情况,我建议大家长期关注医药和医疗器械股,原因是,由于大盘波澜壮阔而又让人胆战心惊,必然会刺激心脑血管药物和心脏支架等医疗器械的需求,强烈推荐中新药业(速效救心丸),乐普医疗(心脏支架),同时建议关注福成五丰(殡葬)。

躲过了1.19股灾,却没有躲过5.5股灾,虽然比大盘情况稍好,但是受损不少,突然觉得人生也是如此的,也许你铺垫了很久,好不容易才站住了脚根,然后一个变故,分分钟一无所有。当大盘一致向好的时候,在些大嘴炮就开始放炮了,“4000点是牛市的正真起点”、“4500点是一个很容易跨过去的槛”、“看好大盘上万点”等等,等到一回调,利空新闻占了大面积:“预计深调至3500-3800点”、“5.30股灾是否重现”等等,跟人生一样,好的时候全世界都在帮你,不好的时候全世界都在踩你,如果忍不住割肉跑了,你就是真的输了。现在的人生太暴力,强者越强,弱者越弱,有钱的越来越有钱,没钱的越来越没钱。

对于人生,有很多心灵鸡汤,对于股市,也有一种人叫段子手,在生活中坚持自我的我貌似已经到了苟延残喘的地步,不知道在股市中坚持自我的我是否能够有所小成,至少学到些有用的东西。这个时候的我特别喜欢beyond的一首歌《海阔天空》,最喜欢那一句:背弃了理想,谁人都可以,(但是我不行),哪会怕有一天只你共我。我感觉心里的那股能量,迟早要爆发出来的。

现在的社会变化太快,今天你被前呼后拥,明天可能就是门可罗雀,深呼吸,让一切都慢下来吧,送给大家一首诗《从前慢》,出自著名的诗人、画家:木心

记得早先少年时
大家诚诚恳恳
说一句,是一句

清早上火车站
长街黑暗无行人
卖豆浆的小店冒着热气

从前的日色变得慢
车,马,邮件都慢
一生只够爱一个人

从前的锁也好看
钥匙精美有样子
你锁了,人家就懂了

昨天股市熊大,今天股市熊二,明天是不是就是光头强?

原创文章,转载请注明: 转载自飞月秀

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